How will the new bans affect the economy? - Page 2 - Guild Wars Forums

IlikeGW · May 27, 2010, 05:36 PM // 17:36

Quote:

Originally Posted by Voodoo Rage

It is kind of sad to see an EL Henchmen go away. Those were truly one of a kind.

That's just a bonus. Stuff that rare shouldn't exist as it shows here the people who buy it are cheaters anyway.

Axeman002 · May 27, 2010, 05:41 PM // 17:41

Quote:

Originally Posted by Talithan

Just a thought, but those minis that there was a highly limited number of to start with may have disappeared completely?

this is true.

Robin Hood Uk · May 27, 2010, 05:46 PM // 17:46

Quote:

Originally Posted by IlikeGW

That's just a bonus. Stuff that rare shouldn't exist as it shows here the people who buy it are cheaters anyway.

No, it just shows that a cheater got to it fast. Sure theres still EL hench's owned by 100% legit players.

Jenn · May 27, 2010, 05:48 PM // 17:48

I think we'll see a few interesting changes, a shift in the equilibrium, so to speak.

A lot of wealth was generated by illegitimate activities (botting, match manipulation), but only a small percentage was shown on guru through high end sales. Some very high end items were almost never successfully sold through Guru simply because, for the most part, only people who illegitimately obtained money could keep up with the inflated prices. Another reason we don't always see how much money is being generated by cheaters is because it is turned into real cash. This is not to say all rich people are botters, or all poor people are innocent, but after many, many months of seeing the ugly that goes behind high end trades, I've come to my own personal conclusion that people who get to be extraordinarily rich get there in less-than-innocent ways.

It's also important to note that some ways of getting extraordinarily rich aren't direct violations of the EULA, though they may be incredibly slimy. Some of the biggest scores I've seen people make are through taking advantage of others. It's hard to get rid of these people when they prey on others directly, not just the game. There are very few easily enforcible rules governing how to interact with players (and rightfully so, in my opinion). We might be able to stop people from botting, but we can't stop them from being jerks.

We won't know for a while what the actual outcomes could be as we don't know the extent of the bans. If the bans were comprehensive on illegitimate activities, I suspect we'll notice less activity in the high-end markets. I don't know if prices will drop a lot. In fact, some may go up before they come back down (imagine how many pandas and kanaxais were banned!!).

Things will be unsettled for a while, but I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

ShaneOfMach · May 27, 2010, 06:42 PM // 18:42

I think for every botter Anet has banned, they have effectively banned a habitual spender.

I don't know if 3700 is a significant amount towards the majority of the market, but now that these people have been eradicated, you might be bound to see less people willing to shell out dozens of ectos for singular items.

Alex/Stuiver · May 27, 2010, 06:54 PM // 18:54

Lets take a closer look at this shall we?
There are around 1.5million guildwars players where 500000 are inactive/Second accounts.
That leaves to you 1million players the half of that probably isn't really rich.
That leaves you with 500000 players which change from wealth from 20 obsidian sets to just a simple dwarven set.
So lets say about 100000 players have obsidian.
and 3700 of them are botters which would have meant 3700 of them have about 20 stacks of Ectos and 2 stacks of ambraces(as seen on pics).
However you wouuld need to take that half of that since not all botters were fanatique farmers.
so lets say about 1500 people of them were, so 1500 X 20 = 30000 Stacks of ectos and about 3000 stacks of armbraces, Well one thing I can tell you is that that many ectos and armbraces do matter.
Since 100000 people will have been rich but won't have stacks of ectos.
You shouldn't be counting in players but in the stuff they've had which was worth that much.

Karate Jesus · May 27, 2010, 07:14 PM // 19:14

Quote:

Originally Posted by IlikeGW

That's just a bonus. Stuff that rare shouldn't exist as it shows here the people who buy it are cheaters anyway.

That may be true some of the time, but the truth is that we lost at least 2-3 Vizus, several pandas, an untold number of polar bears, EL henchmen tonics, etc.

We lost quite a bit of valuable in-game stuff, which will only drive the cost on those items up into unimaginable numbers.

EDIT: For example, here's a list of things that are gone from the game now -

Unded Panda, Ded Panda, Unded Island Guardian, Unded Mad King Guard, Unded Vizu. 3x Ded Vizu, Unded Zhed, 2x Ded Zhed, Unded Shiroken, 2x Ded Shiroken, Unded Ghostly, Unded Polar, Unded Greased, Unded Oni, Unded Naga, Unded Yeti, Unded Dhumm
4500e pure ecto/cash, + 15,000e worth of oldschool weapons and tonics
1x EL Henchman Tonic
The Gold Trim Guild, Peace and Harmony

That's quite a bit.

Winterclaw · May 27, 2010, 07:31 PM // 19:31

Overall I think the effects remain to be seen. There's probably more botters. There's probably more gold farmers. Overall nothing might happen from it all. Sure there might be a spike here or a drop there, but overall I'm not sure things will change much.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Karate Jesus

For example, here's a list of things that are gone from the game now -

Unded Panda, Ded Panda
Unded Island Guardian
Unded Mad King Guard
Unded Vizu. 3x Ded Vizu,
Unded Zhed, 2x Ded Zhed
Unded Shiroken, 2x Ded Shiroken
Unded Ghostly
Unded Polar
Unded Greased
Unded Oni
Unded Naga
Unded Yeti
Unded Dhumm
4500e pure ecto/cash, + 15,000e worth of oldschool weapons and tonics
1x EL Henchman Tonic
The Gold Trim Guild, Peace and Harmony

That's quite a bit.

And a partridge in a pair tree.

Part of me says who cares about those things being lost? They are so bloody rare most of us aren't even going to see them, much less have a shot at owning one. Let's say I could farm 4 ecto an hour. It'd probably take 25-125 hours or more of ecto farming alone just to be able to afford one of those suckers. I'm not doing that. So it is sad that some things got lost, but those aren't things I was going to get anyways.

Now it would be nice for Anet to reintroduce some of the uber-rare minis again, but frankly I'm still not going to get one. So nice or not, it isn't going to affect me either way.

Karate Jesus · May 27, 2010, 07:47 PM // 19:47

Quote:

Originally Posted by Winterclaw

Overall I think the effects remain to be seen. There's probably more botters. There's probably more gold farmers. Overall nothing might happen from it all. Sure there might be a spike here or a drop there, but overall I'm not sure things will change much.

And a partridge in a pair tree.

Part of me says who cares about those things being lost? They are so bloody rare most of us aren't even going to see them, much less have a shot at owning one. Let's say I could farm 4 ecto an hour. It'd probably take 25-125 hours or more of ecto farming alone just to be able to afford one of those suckers. I'm not doing that. So it is sad that some things got lost, but those aren't things I was going to get anyways.

Now it would be nice for Anet to reintroduce some of the uber-rare minis again, but frankly I'm still not going to get one. So nice or not, it isn't going to affect me either way.

Well, you're right, barely any of us will ever seen them (hell, I know I never would), but it still kind of hurts to see that. Anet introduced those items hoping that a lucky few would get to have them.....now, none of us do.

It's kind of a double-edged sword. If you owned those items, then now they're worth more. If you didn't and you were trying to get one, then you'll probably never afford it now.

jazilla · May 27, 2010, 07:52 PM // 19:52

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yawgmoth

I'm sure there will be close to no observable effect on the economy caused by what disappeared. Remember that players who had stacks of ectos in their inventories don't equal to a supply of ectos on the market. Those same players could just aswell generate more demand for even more ectos. So it should balance pretty fine without a visible effect.

Also despite what many here think, 3,700 accounts is a very very small number compared to the entire active population of GW players which is likely still a couple hundred thousand. And banning is economically no different than players just leaving the game and letting their accounts rot unused. Players with phat accounts leave all the time and loads of extremelly rare or 1-of-a-kind items disappear with them.

The only real economy effects we may see is less bots producing less of what they farmed - in this case probably unid golds and black dyes from raptors may go slightly up.

^this is for anyone who thinks GW is dead.

-Makai- · May 27, 2010, 08:02 PM // 20:02

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tullzinski

do not really care about the "economy" never have never will. On a side note though Diablo's "economy" did not seem to suffer after massive bot/hack deletions.

Completely agreed.

Am I the the only one who thinks Zaishen keys will go up just a little?

Trader of Secrets · May 27, 2010, 08:04 PM // 20:04

Depends on what was losed from the bans, anyways overall it for the better!

MArcSinus · May 27, 2010, 08:27 PM // 20:27

I think it's sad that the fair/normal players also get a bit punished from this ban..
I could care less about those ecto's or armbraces but the limited stuff, the high end mini's and EL tonic, I hate to see gone. Not that I could ever afford one but the "If I can't have it nobody can!" attitude doesn't appeal to me.

Yawgmoth · May 27, 2010, 08:48 PM // 20:48

First I was only thinking of the effect on the markets for more ordinary goods, like ectos or farmable items and saw no issues at all. But then thinking of the lost uber rare items that cannot be obtained in any way anymore (uber rare weapons that can't drop anymore, limited minis, hench tonic, etc.) really saddens me. Expensive items which can be still obtained in game don't matter anywhere that much.

Right now we know VERY LITTLE about what really was lost, just think about it, the 3,700 accounts weren't most likely any poor. They may have been accumulating some of their wealth by illegal methods but they were competing with legit players on the market and outbidding them.
Players who quit the game at least often do last chance sales of their rarities or just give some to their friends, so they're not lost for the community. It's not the case with instaban.

So I think it would be an awesomely nice initiative but probably a huge huge logistical nightmare for Anet to REDISTRIBUTE the lost top valuable items from terminated accounts back to the community in some way, as a random draw with equal chances or other kind of contest. I'm sure many many players would love that.

Winterclaw · May 27, 2010, 09:24 PM // 21:24

Quote:

Originally Posted by Karate Jesus

Well, you're right, barely any of us will ever seen them (hell, I know I never would), but it still kind of hurts to see that. Anet introduced those items hoping that a lucky few would get to have them.....now, none of us do.

It's kind of a double-edged sword. If you owned those items, then now they're worth more. If you didn't and you were trying to get one, then you'll probably never afford it now.

Yeah I can see that. However some people got lucky, saw the ecto signs and sold it off. However that is their right. So when those items traded hands into the people with the most money, the botters, the items were doomed. But then again, since the botters have access to more ectos than the rest of us, it isn't like they have any reason to sell those items. I mean those are their vanity items. So when someone like that goes into a botter's hands it's really gone at that point.

So I wonder if Anet banned all of the botters, if there'd be any of those uber rares left.

prey monkie · May 27, 2010, 09:32 PM // 21:32

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alex/Stuiver

Lets take a closer look at this shall we?
There are around 1.5million guildwars players where 500000 are inactive/Second accounts.
That leaves to you 1million players the half of that probably isn't really rich.
That leaves you with 500000 players which change from wealth from 20 obsidian sets to just a simple dwarven set.
So lets say about 100000 players have obsidian.
and 3700 of them are botters which would have meant 3700 of them have about 20 stacks of Ectos and 2 stacks of ambraces(as seen on pics).
However you wouuld need to take that half of that since not all botters were fanatique farmers.
so lets say about 1500 people of them were, so 1500 X 20 = 30000 Stacks of ectos and about 3000 stacks of armbraces, Well one thing I can tell you is that that many ectos and armbraces do matter.
Since 100000 people will have been rich but won't have stacks of ectos.
You shouldn't be counting in players but in the stuff they've had which was worth that much.

lol fail

and yeah a lot of Limited stuff is gone now and those things will b more expensive. unded yeti/naga/oni which prices were already getting higher every week. Altho a lot less people who can afford it. so if u own unded limited minipets its gonna b harder to sell but ur gonna get more money for it. and lets asume most players that have 1000e+ are hardcore players that actually care about their wealth and won't sell their stuff for cheap. its gonna go up. but thats not the big deal imo. cuz mostly High end guild(pvp/Pve) got hit a lot of knoweledge is dissapeared from the game Because people that havent been banned lost their buddies to SC with or pvp with. so yeah this whole bann thing set Guild wars 2 years back High End wise. Which makes this update the most effective SC nerf that anet did this last 1.5/1year. cuz everyone thats not kinda into sc's knows that Shadow form is still lol and High end areas were still easy to farm.

Anyway anet GG and to all the qq'ers on gwg here. go play the game instead of qq'ing on forums and stop acting jalous because you've been denied to every high end guild in the game. go vq normal mode area's!

Mavy · May 27, 2010, 09:57 PM // 21:57

Probably no more Kanaxais in game... GG

talon994 · May 27, 2010, 10:03 PM // 22:03

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zahr Dalsk

I'm gonna say a decrease in value as demand drops.

Bot users = farm gold = buy ecto to store more.

Without them? Less ecto purchase.

Supply? AFAIK there were no ecto farm bots.

And there are still many ectos out there unless the power traders were also botting (unlikely), and seeing as power traders have always been the main location of ecto...

TopK farm bot

Sirius Bsns · May 27, 2010, 10:05 PM // 22:05

Alot of items are now gone, so player demand will most likely increase. On the other side of the coin, all those "banned" players may've been a part of that "demand", so we'd have to factor both of those cases when evaluating the in-game economy. It may even out, or it may lessen the spikes in pricing.

-Martian- · May 27, 2010, 11:07 PM // 23:07

Thinking about what many ppl posted here and in other threads...why care about lost pixels?

an example...few rare minis are gone forever...

...and?

My life is still confortable.

May 27, 2010, 05:48 PM // 17:48	#24
Jenn Resigned. Join Date: Sep 2006	I think we'll see a few interesting changes, a shift in the equilibrium, so to speak. A lot of wealth was generated by illegitimate activities (botting, match manipulation), but only a small percentage was shown on guru through high end sales. Some very high end items were almost never successfully sold through Guru simply because, for the most part, only people who illegitimately obtained money could keep up with the inflated prices. Another reason we don't always see how much money is being generated by cheaters is because it is turned into real cash. This is not to say all rich people are botters, or all poor people are innocent, but after many, many months of seeing the ugly that goes behind high end trades, I've come to my own personal conclusion that people who get to be extraordinarily rich get there in less-than-innocent ways. It's also important to note that some ways of getting extraordinarily rich aren't direct violations of the EULA, though they may be incredibly slimy. Some of the biggest scores I've seen people make are through taking advantage of others. It's hard to get rid of these people when they prey on others directly, not just the game. There are very few easily enforcible rules governing how to interact with players (and rightfully so, in my opinion). We might be able to stop people from botting, but we can't stop them from being jerks. We won't know for a while what the actual outcomes could be as we don't know the extent of the bans. If the bans were comprehensive on illegitimate activities, I suspect we'll notice less activity in the high-end markets. I don't know if prices will drop a lot. In fact, some may go up before they come back down (imagine how many pandas and kanaxais were banned!!). Things will be unsettled for a while, but I guess we'll just have to wait and see. __________________ "Let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we???ll change the world." Jack Layton

May 27, 2010, 06:42 PM // 18:42	#25
ShaneOfMach Krytan Explorer Join Date: Aug 2006	I think for every botter Anet has banned, they have effectively banned a habitual spender. I don't know if 3700 is a significant amount towards the majority of the market, but now that these people have been eradicated, you might be bound to see less people willing to shell out dozens of ectos for singular items.

May 27, 2010, 06:54 PM // 18:54	#26
Alex/Stuiver Ascalonian Squire Join Date: Feb 2010 Guild: The Resurrected Lions [TRL] Profession: R/	Lets take a closer look at this shall we? There are around 1.5million guildwars players where 500000 are inactive/Second accounts. That leaves to you 1million players the half of that probably isn't really rich. That leaves you with 500000 players which change from wealth from 20 obsidian sets to just a simple dwarven set. So lets say about 100000 players have obsidian. and 3700 of them are botters which would have meant 3700 of them have about 20 stacks of Ectos and 2 stacks of ambraces(as seen on pics). However you wouuld need to take that half of that since not all botters were fanatique farmers. so lets say about 1500 people of them were, so 1500 X 20 = 30000 Stacks of ectos and about 3000 stacks of armbraces, Well one thing I can tell you is that that many ectos and armbraces do matter. Since 100000 people will have been rich but won't have stacks of ectos. You shouldn't be counting in players but in the stuff they've had which was worth that much.

May 27, 2010, 08:04 PM // 20:04	#32
Trader of Secrets Jungle Guide Join Date: Jun 2006	Depends on what was losed from the bans, anyways overall it for the better!

May 27, 2010, 08:27 PM // 20:27	#33
MArcSinus Frost Gate Guardian Join Date: Mar 2010 Location: The Netherlands Guild: Are We Friends [NLT] Profession: E/	I think it's sad that the fair/normal players also get a bit punished from this ban.. I could care less about those ecto's or armbraces but the limited stuff, the high end mini's and EL tonic, I hate to see gone. Not that I could ever afford one but the "If I can't have it nobody can!" attitude doesn't appeal to me.

May 27, 2010, 08:48 PM // 20:48	#34
Yawgmoth Furnace Stoker Join Date: Apr 2005	First I was only thinking of the effect on the markets for more ordinary goods, like ectos or farmable items and saw no issues at all. But then thinking of the lost uber rare items that cannot be obtained in any way anymore (uber rare weapons that can't drop anymore, limited minis, hench tonic, etc.) really saddens me. Expensive items which can be still obtained in game don't matter anywhere that much. Right now we know VERY LITTLE about what really was lost, just think about it, the 3,700 accounts weren't most likely any poor. They may have been accumulating some of their wealth by illegal methods but they were competing with legit players on the market and outbidding them. Players who quit the game at least often do last chance sales of their rarities or just give some to their friends, so they're not lost for the community. It's not the case with instaban. So I think it would be an awesomely nice initiative but probably a huge huge logistical nightmare for Anet to REDISTRIBUTE the lost top valuable items from terminated accounts back to the community in some way, as a random draw with equal chances or other kind of contest. I'm sure many many players would love that.

May 27, 2010, 09:57 PM // 21:57	#37
Mavy Lion's Arch Merchant Join Date: Sep 2009 Guild: TLS Profession: Mo/	Probably no more Kanaxais in game... GG

May 27, 2010, 10:05 PM // 22:05	#39
Sirius Bsns Banned Join Date: May 2010 Guild: PonG Profession: W/Mo	Alot of items are now gone, so player demand will most likely increase. On the other side of the coin, all those "banned" players may've been a part of that "demand", so we'd have to factor both of those cases when evaluating the in-game economy. It may even out, or it may lessen the spikes in pricing.

May 27, 2010, 11:07 PM // 23:07	#40
-Martian- Krytan Explorer Join Date: Jul 2006 Profession: W/	Thinking about what many ppl posted here and in other threads...why care about lost pixels? an example...few rare minis are gone forever... ...and? My life is still confortable.